Enhancements to statistical Probability of Area Models based upon updated ISRID data collection


Enhancements to statistical Probability of Area Models based upon updated ISRID data collection

About Event
12/10/2018 15:00 - 15:45
Silfurberg A

The International Search and Rescue Incident Database (ISRID) previously contained 50,000 incidents which was the basis for information found in Lost Person Behavior. A new round of data collection increased the size of ISRID to 145,000 incidents. This latest effort resulted in new data standards and a new data collection tool called Search and Rescue data Collection & Analysis Tool (SARCAT) to improve data quality. A new spatial model called the point model was created which provides the probability that the subject is found within 100 meters of the IPP or the destination. The value of combining different spatial models such as the ring model and distance from IPP as scored by MapScore has been determined to statistically significant. Several new subject categories are defined including multiple scenario based profiles (medical, trauma, investigative, avalanche, etc.). Additional new subject categories will be presented. A more detail analysis of Autism profile is also provided. Analysis of new emerging trends to predict spatial model statistics when data is missing for temperate or dry domain specific expression has been determined. Additional polar domain data also offers new insights. The new ISRID data has also been used to determine enhanced and more detail survivability curves out to the 95%. The integration of multiple models together along with expression of the Probability of Success Rate (PSR) in the FIND tactical decision aid will be discussed

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